ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 6.6pts to 80.4 after RBA increases interest rates by 0.50% – largest increase for over 20 years
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped a large 6.6pts to 80.4 this week to its lowest since early April 2020. Consumer Confidence is now a significant 29.6pts below the same week a year ago, June 12/13, 2021 (111.0) and is now 14.8pts below the 2022 weekly average of 95.2.
On a State-based level Consumer Confidence was down significantly in Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia, but virtually unchanged in Queensland. Looking at the indicators the biggest declines driving confidence down were in regards to personal finances over the next year and whether now is a ‘good/bad time to buy’ major household items – both down sharply.
Current financial conditions
- Now 21% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 41% (down 1ppt), that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Future financial conditions
- Looking forward, just over a quarter of Australians, 27% (down 5ppts) expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator for over two years since early April 2020) compared to 38% (up 6ppts), that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially (the highest figure for this indicator for over two years since March 2020).
Current economic conditions
- An unchanged 8% of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months (the equal lowest figure for this indicator for nearly two years since October 2020) compared to 39% (up 5ppts), that expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator for nearly two years since September 2020).
Future economic conditions
- In the longer term, only 10% (down 4ppts) of Australians are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years (a new record low for this indicator) compared to 20% (up 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- When it comes to buying intentions now just 23% (down 5ppts) of Australians, saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the lowest figure for this indicator for over two years since early April 2020) while nearly half, 49% (up 7ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the highest figure for this indicator for over two years since early April 2020).
ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:
Consumer confidence declined 7.6% last week as the RBA raised the cash rate by 50bps. Confidence is at its lowest since early April 2020, during the early stages of the pandemic. Outside of the pandemic, consumer confidence hasn’t been this low since January 1991, the midst of the early 1990s recession. Reflecting the dire state of sentiment, the percentage of respondents who expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years dropped to 10% – its lowest level on record. So far this year household spending has been resilient despite the softness in consumer confidence. The RBA, for one, will be looking closely to see whether this divergence can continue.”
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
