ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 0.9pts to 84.6 after RBA raises interest rates to nine-year high of 2.6%
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.9pts to 84.6 this week and is now a large 21pts below the same week a year ago, October 9/10, 2021 (105.6). In addition, Consumer Confidence is now 5.9pts below the 2022 weekly average of 90.5.
The fall in Consumer Confidence was patchy this week with three States down (NSW, Victoria and WA) and two States increasing slightly (Queensland and SA). There were also inconsistent results across the index with three indicators down slightly and two slightly improving.
Current financial conditions
- Now 23% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 44% (up 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Future financial conditions
- Looking forward, now fewer than a third of Australians, 32% (up 1ppt), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 30% (down 1ppt), expect to be ‘worse off’.
Current economic conditions
- Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to more than a third, 38% (up 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times.’
Future economic conditions
- There has been a slight improvement in terms of sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term with 13% (up 1ppt) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 18% (down 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- When it comes to buying intentions now 24% (down 1ppt) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while almost twice as many, 45% (up 2ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:
Consumer confidence dropped by 1.1% last week, despite the smaller than expected 25bp rate hike by the RBA. The decline was bigger than the 0.5% decline following September’s 50bp rate increase. Though it is worth highlighting that consumer confidence has remained in the 84-88 range since mid-August despite higher rates. The loss last week was mainly driven by a 3.2% drop in confidence among those paying off a mortgage. For those who own their home, confidence was down by 0.4%, while for those renting, it was up 0.9%. Household inflation expectations dropped to 5.5% as average petrol prices fell slightly over the week.
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Consumer Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Business Confidence – Monthly Detailed Report in Australia.
Consumer Banking Satisfaction - Monthly Report in Australia.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
