NSW Voting Intention: ALP increased their lead over the L-NP to end 2022: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%

Finding No: 9158

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The latest Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention in New South Wales shows the ALP on 55% (up 3% points since November) well ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 45% (down 3% points) on a two-party preferred basis.

This Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention was conducted via telephone and online surveying with 1,446 New South Wales electors aged 18+ during the month of December 2022.

Primary voting intention shows the ALP and Coalition are level on only 33.5%

The ALP and Liberal-National Coalition both lost support to minor parties and independents in December with the L-NP down 3.5% points to 33.5% and now level with the ALP on 33.5% (down 1.5% points).

Not since the 2007 New South Wales Election have both major parties failed to secure a primary vote support of at least 40% in a New South Wales State Election.

The support increased for minor parties and independents in December with support for the Greens rising 0.5% points to 12% while support for ‘Other parties and independents’ was up 4.5% points to 21%.

Among the minor parties support for One Nation is at 4.5% (down 0.5% points), Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is on 1.5% (up 1% point), the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party is on 1% (down 0.5% points), the Animal Justice Party is on 1% (up 0.5% points) the Legalise Cannabis Party is on 1% (up 0.5% points), the Liberal Democrats are on 0.5% (unchanged), ‘Teal Independents’ are 1% (up 0.5% points) and another 10.5% (up 3% points) say they will support other minor parties and independents.

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the latest Roy Morgan Poll into NSW voting intention shows the ALP well on track to follow up victories in the Federal and Victorian Elections in 2022 with a victory at the NSW State Election due in late March:

“Roy Morgan began interviewing for State voting intention in New South Wales in mid-2022 and the results for December show the ALP on 55% with a commanding two-party preferred lead over the Liberal-National Coalition Government on 45% – a gap of 10% points.

“The ALP has been clearly ahead in each of the last four months on a two-party preferred basis although the primary support for both major parties is low at only 33.5% in December. Primary vote support for both major parties dropped in December, but it is the L-NP which is down significantly since the 2019 NSW Election – by 8.1% points while the ALP is virtually unchanged from 2019.

“The drop in support for the L-NP has mostly drifted to both the Greens on 12% (up 2.4% points) and other minor parties and independents on 21% (up 5.5% points). The latest results for December show that around a third of the electorate plan to vote for a non-major party candidate.

“The trends we see in NSW State polling echo the trends we saw at last year’s Federal Election when the ALP won Government despite receiving only 32.6% of the primary vote, even less than the L-NP on 35.7%. Nearly a third of electors, 31.7%, voted for a minor party or independents at last year’s Federal Election.

“Interviewing for this survey was completed in December before the controversy surrounding Premier Dominic Perrottet’s decision to dress in a Nazi uniform at his 21^st birthday party hit the headlines during mid-January.

“The results for the next period of surveying conducted this month will be out in the next fortnight and will show whether Perrottet’s decision to wear a Nazi uniform twenty years ago has come back to bite him as he seeks to close the gap on the Chris Minns-led Opposition over the last two months of the campaign.

“A victory for the ALP in New South Wales will mean wall-to-wall Labor Governments on the Australian mainland with only the three-term Tasmanian Liberal Government led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff standing against a clean sweep of Australia’s nine legislatures.”

For further comment or more information contact:

Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or Julian McCrann 0434 361 298 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

Question 1:

“If a State Election for New South Wales were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?"

New South Wales Primary Voting Intention – Trends.

	New South Wales Electors 18+
PRIMARY	2019 NSW Election	September 2022	October 2022	November 2022	December 2022
VOTE	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	41.6	34	32	37	33.5
ALP	33.3	34	36.5	35	33.5
Greens	9.6	12.5	9.5	11.5	12
Total Others	15.5	19.5	22	16.5	21
One Nation	1.1	3.5	5.5	5	4.5
UAP: United Australia Party	n/a	1	1	0.5	1.5
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers (SFF) Party	3.5	1	1	1.5	1
Animal Justice Party	1.5	1.5	1	0.5	1
Legalise Cannabis Party	n/a	2	1.5	0.5	1
Liberal Democrats	0.2	0.5	1	0.5	0.5
‘Teal Independents’	n/a	0.5	1	0.5	1
Independents	4.8	7.5	8.5	5.5	9
Other Parties	4.4	2	1.5	2	1.5
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100

New South Wales Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention – Trends.

	New South Wales Electors 18+
	2019 NSW Election	September 2022	October 2022	November 2022	December 2022
2PP	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	52	47	43	48	45
ALP	48	53	57	52	55
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

	40% – 60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.0	±2.7	±1.9	±1.3
5,000	±1.4	±1.2	±0.8	±0.6
7,500	±1.1	±1.0	±0.7	±0.5
10,000	±1.0	±0.9	±0.6	±0.4
20,000	±0.7	±0.6	±0.4	±0.3
50,000	±0.4	±0.4	±0.3	±0.2