ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 87.7 in second week of January – highest since September 2022
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 87.7 this week, at its highest level for over three months since late September 2022 (87.8). However, Consumer Confidence is a large 10.5pts below the same week a year ago, January 10-16, 2022 (97.9). Consumer Confidence is now only 1pt below the 2022 weekly average of 88.7.
Consumer Confidence this week was virtually unchanged with small increases in confidence relating to personal financial situations while there was virtually no change in views on the Australian economy and whether now is a good or bad time to buy major household items as many Australians continued to enjoy their summer holidays.
Consumer Confidence was mixed around Australia and was up in Victoria and Western Australia (for the first time this year), but down in NSW, Queensland and South Australia. Victoria is the only mainland State for which Consumer Confidence has increased for the first two weeks of 2023.
Now 22% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 43% (down 2ppts) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Looking forward, over a third of Australians, 35% (up 2ppts), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the highest figure for this indicator for nearly a year since March 2022) while slightly more, 29% (up 1ppt), expect to be ‘worse off’.
Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term is still very weak with only 14% (unchanged) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 17% (unchanged) expecting ‘bad times’.
When it comes to buying intentions now over a quarter, 26% (unchanged) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 46% (up 1ppt), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.
ANZ Senior Economist, Adelaide Timbrell, commented:
Consumer confidence increased very slightly by 0.3pts to 87.7 in the second week of the year. Confidence about ‘current economic conditions’ fell slightly, while households became more optimistic about their finances. The ‘financial situation next year’ sub-index rose to its highest since late April 2022, before increases in the cash rate began. It is worth noting, that stronger confidence is not necessarily a leading indicator of stronger spending. ANZ-observed spending data shows weaker spending in the first week of 2023 compared to the previous year. Household inflation expectations jumped 0.4ppt, but are still 0.5ppt lower than the end of last year.
This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,483 online and telephone interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 during the week of January 9-15, 2023.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
