Post-Christmas sales forecast to reach a record $23.5 billion – up 7.9% yoy
Australian retail sales are set to remain strong following the festive trading period, with consumers predicted to spend a record $23.5 billion during the Boxing Day sales– an increase of 7.9% over last year - according to forecasts released today by the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) in collaboration with strategic partner Roy Morgan.
Hospitality venues are predicted to drive the greatest growth – forecast to increase whopping 30% over this time last year - when many Australians were battling the Omicron wave. Clothing is also predicted to see double digit growth, with a predicted rise of 11.4% over last year, followed by Department stores with growth of 8.9% forecast year-on-year – mainly driven by deep discounts due to unseasonal weather.
ARA CEO Paul Zahra said whilst a slow-down is anticipated at some point in 2023, the results are encouraging in a challenging economic environment.
“It’s clear to see Australian’s love affair with shopping continues - shopping and dining-out remain some of our most beloved pass-times through the holiday season. Whilst it’s encouraging to see continued record results for retail, it’s important to acknowledge there are a range of factors influencing the results – including inflationary pricing, and unseasonal weather severally impacting the fashion industry.”
Mr Zahra said Boxing Day remains an important milestone in the retail calendar and this year will be no exception.
“Christmas trading is focused on gifts for others. Post-Christmas Australian’s typically turn their minds to purchases for themselves and their household. It’s been a tough year for many, and this year we are seeing what we are calling ‘freedom’ spending, where people reward themselves after an intense and challenging period. The rush to get out and indulge the senses – eat drink and be merry – remains a constant through this holiday period as Australian’s recover their post-pandemic mojo,” he said.
Mr Zahra said Boxing Day sales are known for retailers clearing out current season’s merchandise in preparation for the next season.
“The fashion industry has suffered an unseasonal Summer hence, there will be great buys for consumers and great discounts as they prepare for the new season’s intake. Of course, retailers are also keen to clear any excess inventory from the festive season. You will find something for everyone across every store and every category both instore and online. It’s a great time to save,” said Mr Zahra.
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About us: The Australian Retailers Association (ARA) is the oldest, largest and most diverse national retail body, representing a $400 billion sector that employs 1.3 million Australians and is the largest private sector employer in the country. As Australia’s peak retail body, representing more than 120,000 retail shop fronts and online stores, the ARA informs, advocates, educates, protects and unifies our independent, national
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
