NSW Voting Intention: ALP lead over the L-NP increases slightly in late February: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%

A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll on State voting intention in New South Wales shows the ALP on 52.5% (up 0.5% points since January) ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 47.5% (down 0.5% points) in late February less than a month before the State Election.

This Roy Morgan SMS Poll on State voting intention was conducted via SMS with 981 New South Wales electors aged 18+ from February 24-28, 2023.

Majority approve Dominic Perrottet’s job performance, but Chris Minns narrowly preferred as Premier

This special Roy Morgan SMS Poll shows a narrow contest between the two leaders with a slight majority of 54% of electors saying that Opposition Leader Chris Minns is the ‘Better Premier’ compared to 46% that select incumbent Premier Dominic Perrottet.

Despite narrowly losing the ‘Better Premier’ contest a slim majority of 53% of electors say they approve of the job Premier Dominic Perrottet is doing compared to 47% who disapprove.

Primary voting intention shows the ALP on 33.5% just ahead of the Coalition on 32.5%

The ALP has a slight primary vote lead on 33.5% at the end of February, up 1% point since January and is now just ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 32.5%, down 2.5% points.

Not since the 2007 New South Wales Election have both major parties failed to secure a primary vote support of at least 40% in a New South Wales State Election.

Minor party support is high but final candidate declarations are set to lower this support

Importantly and following the example of last year’s Federal Election, over a third of the electorate, 34%, say they will vote for minor parties and independents, up 1.5% points on January.

The two minor parties attracting most of this support are from opposite ends of the political spectrum with the Greens on 11%, up 1.5% points since January, and One Nation on 8.5%, up 2% points.

However, although the Greens are expected to stand candidates in all 93 lower house seats in the election, One Nation will be unlikely to field candidates in more than half of the seats up for grabs.

The final nominations for seats close next week (Wednesday March 8, 2023) and at that point we will be able to properly weight the support of minor parties like One Nation based on how many seats they will actually stand a candidate in.

Depending on how many seats One Nation actually stand a candidate in a substantial portion of their potential support is set to flow back to the two major parties – especially the Liberal-National coalition. This effect is likely to narrow the ALP’s two-party preferred lead over the next few weeks.

This Roy Morgan SMS Poll shows high support for both the Greens and One Nation and this result would deliver both minor parties seats in the upper house. The election for the upper house in NSW is a state-wide election and parties need to receive just 4.5% of the state-wide vote to guarantee winning a seat.

A further 14.5% of electors support other minor parties and independents including the Animal Justice Party, ‘Teal Independents’ and other minor parties such as the Shooters, Fishers, Farmers Party (SFF), Legalise Cannabis Party and the Liberal Democrats, down 2% on January.

It is not yet confirmed how many lower house candidates these parties will stand at the election.

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the New South Wales election continues to be a closely fought contest with the official election campaign set to begin next week when the electoral rolls and candidate nominations for the election close:

For further comment or more information contact:

Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or Julian McCrann 0434 361 298 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.